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Once you have set yourself up for
sports arbitrage, you will be able to
- Supplement your income by acting on
a part time basis
- Generate your main income from home
by acting on a full-time basis
- Generate a regular, tax-free, income
for your pension plan
- Make your savings earn far more than
is possible with a bank account
So there are some good reasons to get
started!
Preparation
You will need at least a medium specification
PC, preferably with CD read/write capabilities
or some other media for backups. A printer
can be useful and a broadband connection
to the internet is essential.
To start with, you may be able to use a
dial-up connection, however, once you begin
to get more involved, you will almost certainly
need broadband connection. This makes it
much quicker to access bookies sites and
therefore gives you a better chance of placing
your bets before the odds change.
It's worth having a reference book. There
are quite a few of these that have come
on to the market since the one I first purchased
and most tend to be the pretty much the
same. Unfortunately, many of the books on
sale do not contain any more useful information
than is available on this website for free.
I think that you will find my journals provide
the most complete information although,
of course, I may be biased :-)
However, if you would like to own a hard copy reference book on sports-arbitrage, there is none more comprehensive than the excellent
'Sports Arbitrage - How To place Riskless bets & Create Tax-Free Investments' which is available from Amazon & other book stores.
Now would also be a good time to begin
the slightly daunting task of setting up
all of your bookmaker accounts. There are
absolutely hundreds of bookmakers on the
web, so you need to exercise some discretion
and probably end up with a list of 30 to
50 accounts. I could put up a list of bookmakers
here but the fact is, this topic is well
covered on many other sites. I personally
use the list provided in ArbSurfer Pro
and the free demo version of ArbSurfer Pro is well worth downloading as
it will more or less automate your job of setting up all these new
accounts. Alternatively, I recommend Bookmaker Reviews if you prefer an online list of bookmakers
Organisation
I can't emphasise enough the importance
of being properly organised. You will find
yourself involved in more transactions that
you would ever imagine - credits and debits
on your bank account, credit card accounts
and bookmaker accounts. I recommend that
you open a new bank account and a couple
of credit card accounts specifically for
your betting and do not allow any other
domestic entries on them. This is, after
all, a business and having the week's grocery
bill on your statements simply adds to the
amount of work you will have to do to reconcile
your accounts. Best to keep it all separate
if possible.
You will need to keep a record of all
of the transactions. You shouldn't rely
just on your bank and card statements and
you definitely should not rely upon the
bookmakers to tell you what you have done
and what money you have coming in and going
out. I started out using a simple spreadsheet
to log all of my activity but this became
unworkable after a while. Now I use a dedicated
accounts program called Microsoft Money
but I believe that you could use any other
one with similar results.
Finding Arbs
This is the fun bit...or not!
When I first started out, I was left pretty
much to my own devices as far as finding
arbs was concerned. However, the company
who sold me the first book, Streetwise,
then offered me a service where they would
find the arbs and email them to me, leaving
me to just place the bets and count the
profits. Sounds perfect, doesn't it? Well,
it's not quite the bliss that it may sound
like but the review section of this site
contains the details of my adventures with
this and other services so I won't repeat
it all here.
However, my advice, is that you do not
splash out on any of the services immediately.
If you can get a free trial, then by all
means, take advantage. But to begin with,
you will be better off spending some time
familiarising yourself with the bookmakers'
sites and the sports and events that usually
throw up arbs. At the end of the day, part
of the reason you're doing this is to generate
some independent income - and relying on
an arb service from the very start will
make it hard for you ever to go it alone.
It's well worth visiting the various discussion
sites about sports arbitrage which have
sprung up over recent times. I personally
find them good to read but I don't get involved
in discussions as they often have a tendency
to get nasty.
One of the first things you will notice
as you scan the various forums is that there
is a lot of negativity - much more so than
on forums about other subjects. The reason
for this is that, ultimately, every trader
is in competition with every other trader.
Some of the older hands in the game deliberately
post disinformation on boards in order to
put to entrants off. Others take every opportunity
to criticise the various arb services and
warn people off even though they may secretly
use the same services themselves. Basically,
anyone who speaks positively about a service
will be called a "shill" or have
their credibility doubted in some way because
existing traders have a vested interest
in reducing the number of people that start
trading as novices. This is what has happened
to me because of my website.
I happen to disagree with the "received
wisdom" that showing people the realities
of trading, good and bad, goes against traders'
interests. I know from first-hand experience
that it takes more than just money and a
little information to make a success of
arbitrage trading. There is so much to learn
that can only be gathered from experience
and it takes some real commitment and perseverance
to get to the other side where it all starts
to seem easy. A good service can be of enormous
benefit because you get to see for yourself
where and when arbs appear.
Some forums are better than others, but
all offer something. The mixed signals on
the chat forums seem to be to be a combination
of deliberate attempts by some traders to
put new entrants off and complaints by naive
novices who were expecting an easy ride
with money for nothing, so remember to try
to read between the lines.
A
forum which is focussed on sports arbitrage trading and generally seems
to be quite friendly & populated by some very knowledgeable and
experienced traders is Sports Arbitrage Forum
The Basics
Here's a brief explanation of how to go
about calculating arbitrage and placing
profitable bets.
First off, I recommend that you get used
to the European style of quoting odds, rather
than the UK style of 2/1, 10/3 etc. It becomes
a bit easier to compare them, and it's probably
the most-commonly supported method at international
bookie sites.
In Europe, the odds are expressed as a
single figure representing how much you
get back (including your stake) for every
£1 stake. So 5/1 would be expressed
as 6.0, 3/2 as 2.5, 1/4 as 1.25 etc
Ok, the best way to explain this is to
use an example.
These are odds on who will win Group 9
of Football's Euro 2004 qualifiers. At the
time of writing, these odds were:
Italy: 2.25 (5/4) (William Hill & Intertops)
Wales: 4.00 (61/20) (Nordic Bet)
Yugoslavia: 4.50 (7/2) (William Hill)
Finland: 100.00 (99/1) (Nordic Bet)
Azerbaijan: 5000.00 (4999/1)(Nordic Bet)
You can see that bookie Nordic Bet tends
to rate Italy and Yugoslavia's chances higher
than most bookies do, and so is giving more
generous odds on the remaining teams.
Using rounded-up numbers, if you placed
bets on these teams of £480, £270,
£240, £11 and £0.25 respectively
you would be guaranteed to get £1080
back whoever won the group for a total outlay
of £1000. In other words, 7% risk-free
and tax-free
Potential problems
Timescale
This event is quite long-term (settling
months from the time of this writing). Although
one could argue that the return is far better
than the rate of interest your money may
earn elsewhere, the fact is that if you
concentrated on events which settle sooner,
you will be able to turn your money over
several times in the same period. This turnover
equates to profit so think carefully before
investing in long-term arbs.
Odds Changing
This is the classic problem for all of us.
Prices change and can sometimes leave us
hanging. This is especially true when arbs
are published by one of the services so
you really must work hard to become truly
efficient with your time when betting.
As well as being properly organised - bookmaker
accounts open (& funded, if possible),
website addresses set up in your Favourites
folder, spreadsheets and accounting software
at hand - a good way to minimise the chances
of losing out when a price changes is to
place the bets in the right order. All things
remaining equal, it's best to start with
the favourite and work down. The reason
is that if the odds change on the favourites,
it makes a bigger difference to how much
total stake you need (and whether the arb
is still viable) than if the odds change
on one of the outsiders. For example, if
the odds on Italy drop from 2.25 to 2, you
need to place an extra £30 on them
AND the overall return drops from 7% to
2%. The odds on Azerbaijan could make a
huge drop from 5000 to 1000, and it only
makes £4 difference.
The other thing to take into account is
the 'next best bet' on each outcome. If
(before you can place your bet) William
Hill stops offering 2.25 on Italy, you have
Intertops as a fallback. And if they change
their odds too, there are other bookies
offering 2.20. Now look at Wales; if you
can't get that bet on at 4 with Nordic Bet,
the next best is 3.4. That brings the return
down to 3%. So in this case, you'd be better
off placing the Wales bet first. This might
seem very complicated, but with a bit of
practice you'll be able to spot the right
order.
Transaction fees
Nordic Bet charges 2.75% on credit card
deposits. This seems to be the only practical
deposit method for UK customers, and this
would add £36 to your total stake.
With bookies that don't deal in pounds sterling
you might have currency conversion costs
too, though Neteller is often a great way
to fund dollar-based accounts. If you're
using a betting exchange, remember to take
account of the commission they subtract
from your winnings and adjust your stakes
accordingly.
One important thing to grasp, though, is
that if you are placing lots of arbs each
month, you may only need to fund your account
once. If some of your bets win, you will
effectively have some "free" money
to place more bets with. So try not to get
too hung up about the fees as they will
take your eye of the long-term earnings.
Stake Limits
Bookies set different maximum amounts that
you can place on any single bet. Most are
quite high, but make sure that your bet
limit is going to be high enough at each
one before starting to place your 'arb'
bets. Again, it helps to start with the
favourite as that's where you'll be betting
the largest amount.
There are other small issues which crop
up from time to time and you'll be able
to read all about the ones I have suffered
from over the last 2 years in my journal.
But, to be honest, I look at the problems
as a good thing because they prevent many
people from joining in. If it was totally
hassle-free, there would be too many people
doing it and the opportunities would dry
up!
Bookmaker Responses
Bookmakers as a group don't seem to like
arbitrage traders very much. I found this
out quite early on as I started finding
that my staking limits were being agressively
cut after about 4 months of serious trading.
My solution was to set up entirely new
accounts in the name of my son-in-law -
different name, different address. I don't
use my own accounts at all now, one advantage
being that I can put my name on my website
without fearing a reprisal. But the best
thing to do is to try to avoid your accounts
being limited in the first place, especially
if you do not have a friendly relative or
a trusting friend to lend you their name!
Among the most important points to remember
are:
- don't bet maximum stakes - try to stick
to around 75% or less of the maximum
- always bet round numbers - never pennies.
Round up the nearest £5 whenever possible
- don't go back to a bookmaker for more
of the same bet. Bet once and move on.
- don't place 2 bets at the same bookmaker
- for example in a football arb, don't bet
the draw and one team at the same bookmaker.
- try not to withdraw all of your funds
in one go and certainly don't withdraw after
every bet.
The thing to remember, though, is that
even with all of these precautions, there
are some bookmakers who will still limit
you. The ones that seem particularly bad
are bet and win, easybets, playit and skybet.
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